Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.29.2011
Good Morning:
Federal Reserve member Bullard stated overnight that the FOMC may not be able or willing to wait out the global uncertainties before the US satrts normalising it’s monetary ploicy.
The uncertainties that he is speaking about are:
1) Political unrest in Middle East and North Africa
2) Japanese crisis (earthquake and nuclear)
3) European sovereign debt problems
4) US deficit
US monetary officials seems to be more hawkish lately, but before any decisions the policy makers better be certain that the US economic recovery is on a positive path, and that consumer sentiment is improving and not deteriorating. With the price of gasoline rising daily (it sure seems like it), and rising global tensions on the political front-I think we may see weak consumer sentiment datalater this morning.
World equity markets traded lower-US Futures are higher at this time.
Oil:$103.14 Gold:$1415.80
| TIME | FOR | EST. | PRIOR | |||
| 9:00A.M. | S&P/CASESHILLER HOME PRICE IND. | JAN. | 142.42′ | |||
| 9:00A.M. | S&P/CS 20 CITY MoM% SA | JAN. | -0.40% | -0.41% | ||
| 9:00A.M. | S&P/CS COMPOSITE -20 YoY | JAN. | -3.20% | -2.38% | ||
| 10:00A.M. | CONSUMER CONFIDENCE | MAR. | 65.O | 7O.4 | ||
HAVE A GOOD DAY & GOOD LUCK
Bobys Corner-Open Market-March.28.2011
Good Morning:
We start the week with the USD a bit stronger-ahead of data on US Consumer Spending. Comments by Fed official Bullard stated that the Fed “may consider scaling back on monetary stimulus”. Consumer spending constitutes about 70 percent of the US economy-analysts are expecting an increase of .5 to .6 percent. (actual came in at .7%).
The Swiss franc (CHF) has become the best performing major currency this year. With the US Fed flooding the financial markets with USD, and the G7 working together through intervention to weaken the Yen-the CHF has also become the safe-haven currency of choice.
Switzerland has the 19th largest economy in the world, and it is the sixth most traded currency according to the Bank for International Settlements.
Asian equity markets traded lower, and European equity markets are higher-and US Futures are also higher.
Oil:$104.01 Gold:$1413.20
| TIME | FOR | EST. | PRIOR | |||
| 8:30A.M. | PCE CORE MoM | FEB. | 0.20% | 0.10% | ||
| 8:30A.M. | PERSONAL SPENDING | FEB. | 0.60% | 0.20% | ||
| 8:30A.M. | PCE CORE YoY | FEB. | 0.90% | 0.80% | ||
| 8:30A.M. | PCE DEFLATOR YoY | FEB. | 1.60% | 1.20% | ||
| 8:30A.M. | PERSONAL INCOME | FEB. | 0.40% | 1.00% | ||
| 10:00A.M. | PENDING HOME SLAES MoM | FEB. | 0.90% | -2.80% | ||
| 10:00A.M. | PENDING HOME SLAES YoY | FEB. | -4.40% | |||
| 10:30A.M. | DALLAS FED MANF. ACTIVITY | MAR. | 16.8O | 17.5O | ||
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.17.2011
Good Morning:
JPY strengthened to a post-World War 2 high, as speculation that Japan would delay intervention on their strong currency amid the countries potential nuclear disaster. A higher Yen is not favorable for local investors, as this makes goods in Japan more expensive for the local consumer.
FX markets stabilized in Europe after the turmoil caused by the massive liquidation of USD/JPY positions.
Euro maintained it’s strength-as strong demand from the Middle East lead the charge. It seems that the markets still believe that the ECB will keep its promise to hike interest rates.
US equity markets opened higher-as speculation that the Japanese will contain the nuclear disaster that occurred from the earthquake on March 11.
Commodities rose-and oil gained as fighting in Libya intensified-as concerns that continued conflicts in the Middle East will disrupt supplies of crude.
Oil:$ 100.23 Gold:$1401.10
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March 15.2011
Good Morning:
The crisis in Japan has worsened as the situation at the Fukushima nuclear plant is now looking like it is getting out of control. The plant was rocked by 2 additional explosions this morning, as they struggle to alleviate a meltdown that would produce more radiation leaks.
This crisis along with the escalation of problems in the Middle Eat has added to exceptional price moves in stocks, commodities, currencies, shipping and most other financial instruments globally.
Oil dropped as the crisis in Japan fueled speculation that demand for crude will decline.
Gold, silver, copper and other industrial metals followed the markets and dropped too.
The Nikkei (Tokyo stock market) dropped over 10%-and the markets in Asia and Europe followed suit.
US Futures are down over 200 points at this time.
Oil:$97.70 Gold:$1391.70
| TIME | FOR | EST. | PRIOR | |||
| 8:30A.M. | EMPIRE MANUFACTURING | MARCH | I6.35 | I5.43 | ||
| 8:30A.M. | IMPORT PRICE INDEX MoM | FEB. | 0.90% | 1.50% | ||
| 8:30A.M. | IMPORT PRICE INDEX YoY | FEB. | 6.30% | 5.30% | ||
| 9:00A.M. | TOTAL NET TIC FLOWS | JAN. | $37.5B | $48.2B | ||
| 9:00A.M. | NET LONG TERM TIC FLOWS | JAN. | $55.0B | $65.9B | ||
| 10:00A.M. | NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX | MARCH | 17.O | 16.O | ||
| 2:15P.M. | FOMC RATE DECISION | 15-Mar | ||||
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.14.2011
Good Morning:
The week started with the equity markets in Japan falling the most since 2008, oil dropped, along with US Futures after the largest earthquake in japan’s history left the island nation in chaos. The BOJ has and will continue to pump record amounts of liquidity into the financial sector, along with doubling the size of their asset-buying program in moves that will hopefully protect the economy from the effects of the earthquake. Tokyo stocks were in a free fall, as investors sold equities. No one knows the extent of the damage, but all know that the rebuilding process will be timely and expensive. The potential nuclear meltdown at the Fukishima nuclear plant is of major concern for Japan and the world-as radioative particles escape into the atmosphere. The government is taking precautions that the water supply and food chain does not get contaminated by radioactive fallout.
The euro gained after a meeting of finance ministers from the EU. The meeting produced an agreement that members nations will widen a rescue fund aimed at resolving the sovereign debt issues that plague the region.
The plan needs to be worked out-but the basics allow for the EU to purchase bonds of indebted nations in exchange for austerity measures by the indebted nation.
World equity markets were lower-as are US Futures.
Oil:$99.90 Gold:$1427.90
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.11.2011
Good Morning:
This morning (2:46 PM local time in Japan) an earthquake hit the island nation. The earthquake registered 8.9 on the Richter scale. This is the largest ever recorded in Japan, and the sixth largest on record. It is too early to tell the exact damage and costs that the earthquake will have. There is a tsnuami warning in the Pacific rim-including Hawaii.
Now to the markets:
JPY strengthened after this morning’s earthquake-as investors domestic demand for the safe have on the Yen fueled the rally. The Yen usually benefits from times of uncertainty. With continued unrest in the Middle East, sovereign debt problems in the Euro Zone , and now a record breaking earthquake in Japan-the markets are to say the least nervous and uncertain.
Today we have data on US Retail Sales,Consumer Confidence and Business Inventories.
World equity markets are lower-and US Futures are pointing to a lower opening this morning.
Oil dropped down to the $100/bar after Japan’s earthquake. Refiners have shut down production as a precaution. Japan is the 3rd largest importer of oil in the world. Speculation that demand for crude will be lower in the near future aided the decline.
Oil:$100.33 Gold:$1412.30
| TIME | FOR | EST. | PRIOR | |||
| 8:30A.M. | ADVANCE RETAIL SALES | FEB. | 1.00% | 0.30% | ||
| 8:30A.M. | RETAIL SALES LESS AUTOS | FEB. | 0.70% | 0.30% | ||
| 8:30A.M. | RETAIL SALES EX AUTO & GAS | FEB. | 0.50% | 0.20% | ||
| 9:55A.M. | U. OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE | FEB. | 76.5O | 77.5O | ||
| 10:00A.M. | BUSINESS INVENTORIES | JAN. | 0.80% | 0.80% |
||
HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK
Japanese earthquake affects currency markets
Usd/Jpy rose to 83.28, Eur/Usd down to 1.3800.
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.10.2011
Good Morning:
Moody’s downgraded Spain from Aa2 to Aa1-with a negative outlook.
- Cites concerns over sustainability of Spanish govt finances
- Sees background of only moderate Spanish growth short-medium term
- Spain still has high vulnerability to market disruption
- Total cost of bank restructuring likely around 40-50 blnAs expected the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged.
World equity markets were and are lower-as are US Futures.
Oil:$102.59 Gold:$1418.10
TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 5-Mar 375K 368K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS 26-Feb 3750K 3774K 8:30A.M. TRADE BALANCE JAN. -$41.5B -$40.6B 9:45A.M. BLOOMBERG CONSUMER COMFORT 6-Mar -39.3O 2:00P.M. MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT Feb -$225.4B -$220.9B
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK
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