Air Space violation at White House and Capital
No further details known.
Canada Retail Sales higher than expectations. USDCAD holds key support.
The Retail Sales for Feb, rose by 0.2% vs expectation of a -0.3% decline. Last month was revised to +1.8% (from 1.9% originally reported). The Less Auto component also rose > than expectation, rising by 0.6% vs + 1.4% last month.
The back to back gain is the first since May/June of 2008. Building supplies led the gains. This was a rebound from a 7% decline in this category in the last two months.
Automotive -0.3% vs 2.9%
Gas stations 1.7% vs 2.1%
Furn/electronics -1.9% vs -0.9%
Building supplies 3.0% vs -1.0%
Food & beverage 0.7% vs 2.2%
Supermarkets 0.2% vs 2.5%
Pharmacies 0.3% vs 3.3%
Clothing 0.0% vs 3.0%
Furniture and electronic sales fell by 1.9% for the 6th straight decline in the category.
The USDCAD initially declined but has since moved higher off the number. The pair tested the 100 hour MA at the 1.2321 level (low price was 1.2323). This level will be watched today, with stops below the level. The price has been above the 100 hour MA since breaking higher at 1.2127 on April 17th.
Australian Finance Minister on the Wires
- Can’t rule out further economic stimulus.
- Budget must sustain jobs.
- Budget deficit could exceed A$200B.
Bank of Japan Comments
The BOJ’s Nishimura says the government’s finances are in a severe state. He added that the rise in long-term yields is part of a global trend and rising on hopes the economy is bottoming.
Australian Treasurer Swan’s Press Conference
Australian Treasurer Swan had the following comments at a press conference:
- IMF forecasts for Australian are better than global rivals.
- IMF Report shows Australia’s fiscal position is strong.
- Government will do all it can in the way of stimulus.
- Budget will be used to support jobs.
- No guarantee jobless rate won’t reach double digit figures.
- Swan says he wont speculate on raising taxes.
- Budget will return to surplus over time.
- Right thing is to run a temporary deficit.
- Optimistic about China’s economy.
UK Blanchflower on the newswires
In a surprise. BOE Blanchflower sees early indications of a turnaround in the UK economy. This is giving the GBPUSD a littl bid off the low.
Blanchflower has been a dove for a long time (urged the BOE to cut rates when inflation and commodity prices were rising last year). This comment is a change in sentiment. However, I would like to the see the context of the comment.
IMF lowers global growth forecasts
- IMF SEES GLOBAL ECONOMY GROWING 1.9% NEXT YEAR VS 3% GROWTH PREVIOUSLY REPORTED
- IMF SEES GLOBAL ECONOMY SHRINKING 1.3% THIS YEAR VS 0.5% GROWTH PREVIOUSLY REPORTED
Cont…. UKs Darling comments
- BORROWING FALLING TO 5.5% OF GDP BY 2013/14
- BORROWING TO BE 11.9% OF GDP NEXT YR
- NET BORROWING AT 175 BLN POUNDS IN 09/10
- PLEDGES 0.8% of GDP TIGHTENING UNTIL 2013/14
- UK MEASURES EQUAL FISCAL EASING OF 0.5% OF GDP IN ’09
- PUBLIC FINANCES AT THEIR WORST SINCE WWII
- FINANCIAL INTERVENTION TOTAL 3.5% OF GDP
- OFFER 2,000 POUND DISCOUT ON TRADED IN CARS
- STAMP DUTY HOLIDAY ON HOMES UP TO 175,000 POUNDS
- PLAN TO GUARANTEE ASSET BACKED SECURITIES
- PLEDGES MORTGAGE SUPPORT FOR PEOPLE WHO LOSE JOBS
The GBPUSD is up slightly since the start of the budget speech
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