Economic Calendar (4/21/2009)
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Fed’s Kohn on the Wires
The Federal Reserves Kohn had the following comments early in Asian trading:
- He sees initial signs of recovery and expects a modest recovery, with a chance of a strong one.
- “The cross-currents in the recent data and a bit more favorable financial news of late stand in contrast to the uniformly bleak picture of a few months ago.”
- Recent trends implying that Q2 GDP will decline at slower rate.
- Credit conditions will ease slowly and restrain spending.
- If the recovery should slow down, the Fed will look for new measures in order to boost spending.
- Fed acutely aware of inflation risks if rebound gains speed, remains committed to price stability.
- Financial markets remain disrupted and fragile, but they have improved some since last fall.
- Not clear what is to happen to US auto firms, sudden disorderly problem in auto industry would add to problems in the economy.
IBM EPS for Q1 better than expected, but revenues lighter than expectations
$1.70 vs $1.66. However, revenues were leass thatn expectations. The stock is down $3.00 after the release.
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence better than expected
61.9 versus 58.5 expectation and 57.3 last month. Five Year inflation expectations rises to 2.7% from 2.6% last month
The index is at the highest level since 70.3 in September 2008. The low in confidence was reached at 55.3. This data should benefit the US dollar as focus seems to be shifting to the relative strength of the US versus the EURO.
Canadian CPI Data Released
The CAD Core CPI came out at 0.3% from the previous 0.5%. A drop to 0.2% was forecast.
The CAD CPI came out at 0.2% from the previous 0.7%. A drop to 0.3% was forecast.
Japan’s Finance Minister Yosano Comments
Japan Fin Min Yosano: USD/JPY FX rate is stable at 100.00
Moody’s Places Ireland’s AAA Rating on Review for Possible Downgrade
Moody’s places Ireland’s AAA sovereign ratings on review for possible downgrade
- Action reflects the severe economic adjustment taking place in Ireland, which threatens to undermine the country”s low tax, financial services-driven economic model
- The govt’s debt affordability metrics will probably be lastingly impaired.
- While Moody”s acknowledges that the authorities are being proactive to the extent possible in their effort to restore the country”s economic and financial stability, their room for manoeuvre is limited at this point.
- Should Moody”s come to the view that Ireland will emerge from the crisis with relatively weak growth prospects and a much higher debt burden for the foreseeable future, Ireland would be downgraded to the mid- to high Aa rating range.
- As is its usual practice, Moody”s review will be completed within three months.
***Reminder: Back on Mar 30th: S&P lowered Ireland’s sovereign rating one notch to AA+ from AAA; outlook negative
Swiss National Bank’s Roth on the Wires
SNB’s Roth: Near term economic outlook ‘not bright’; recovery will not start until 2010 and will be a slow process
- Corrective measures will be needed once the economy recovers
- Currency interventions will continue for as long as needed (fourth reiteration)
- Have begun to see the initial signs of stabilization
- Future policies must ensure that future growth is based on a more balanced nature
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