Trading

FOR A PRINTABLE PDF COPY OF THIS REPORT GO TO THE BOTTOM AND CLICK ON THE LINK

There were many times this week, where it seemed like there was an opportunity to sell the dollar.  Tops were made. Key technical levels were looming.  Hurricane Gustav came and went and two others headed for US soil behind it.  Statistics like 19 of 23 days the GBPUSD was down made buying GBPUSD (selling the USD) tempting.  Surely a decline in the dollar was on the horizon?  Surely, a weak employment report would cause a sell off on Friday?

To view this weeks video of the key economic releases for the week, click on the following link:

Data was better than expected.  This should be bullish for the dollar and the stock market

Initial Claims fell to 342K (375 exp) and Continuing Claims fell to 2,934K (2,990k was expected).  4 week moving average went to 369.50K from 376.75K last week.  This is surprising.

Durable Goods: -0.3 but ex Transportation +1.5%.  Last month headline revised to -0.9 from -1.7 and ex trans revised to -2.1 from -2.6.  So this too was not as bad as expected.

The USD continues to maintain the bid from the morning. 

The trends from overnight were thrown off balance with the economic releases for the day.  My guess is the market waffles around, with perhaps reversals of intraday trends at some point on profit taking.  But I cannot be too sure at the moment to be honest.... 

The market has quieted as the Bernanke's testmony drags on.  The dollar weakness seems to have hit a limit.  However, the satisfaction for the bottom fishers has been limited so far. 

On a relative basis, the GBP has suffered today.  EURGBP is looking to test the high at 0.7613.