NZDUSD

The NZDUSD was boosted by fiscal tax cut announced in the Budget announcement last night.  The pair moved above the 100 day Moving average at 0.7877 but stayed below the trendline resistance at 0.7908.  The high was 0.7894.  The pair is now trading at the 0.7850 level.  Traders will be watching to see if the upside resistance can be broken today.

The NZDUSD ran into some stops at the 0.7775 area this morning and tested the 38.2% retracement level of the recent move lower.  The pair was able get through the level and test the 0.7800 level, but failed back to the 0.7780 level.  

The NZDUSD has moved back above the 0.7665 100 day moving average.  Once the level was broken the pair continued higher and is now testing the midpoint of the last move down at 0.7733. 

The pair is now more neutral after the few bearish days that saw the pair test the channel trendline on the downside. 

NZDUSD is approaching the 100 hour moving average resistance at 0.7634 to 0.7639 area as a late afternoon short covering moves the pair higher (see earlier post by clicking here). 

The weaker Retail Sales report last night (-1.2% headline), is another indication of the slowing as a result of record high interest rates.  The pair is now trading fairly comfortably below the 100 day moving average which comes in at 0.7665.   However, there is some support from the  channel support line (see chart).  That support comes in at 0.7555. 

The NZDUSD closed last night below the 100 day moving average which comes in at the 0.7665 level.  This is the first close below the level since January 21st.  At that time it stayed below for one day and bounced higher.   On the downside, there is support at the 0.7567 level, the bottom of the channel (see chart). 

The 100 day moving average (I sound like a broken record) comes in at 0.7665 (see chart below).  The pair has gotten below the level for three days in a row, but has not been able to close below the level.  A close below the level should attract longer term traders.  The pair closed below the level one day in 2008 (on January 21st - see chart below).  The next day, the pair rallied sharply higher. 

On Wednesday evening in NY, a key Retail Sales figure will be released. Growth has been slowing in New Zealand due to record interest rates.   The chances are that inflation will remain elevated due to higher food and energy prices.  However, if growth slows abruptly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, may be more inclined to ease given the restrictive monetary policy. 

EURUSD:
Stayed above the 1.5449 level and now testing resistance at 1.5484

NZDUSD:
Held the 0.7665 level and traded marginally higher

GBPUSD:
Held the trendline support at 1.9467 and moved higher.

We are watching the EURUSD as it moves back above the 100 hour moving average at 1.5448. The 1.5484 level is where resistance is located. 

NZDUSD has the 200 day moving average at 0.7665 level which will be an important level going into the weekend. 

The GBPUSD has trendline support at the 1.9466 level. 

The 200 day moving average for the NZDUSD comes in at 0.7665.  A close below this level today would be bearish for the pair.  In January, the pair had one day when it closed lower, but rebounded back above it the next day.