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NFP

Forex Trading -NFP better at -51 rather than expected -75

Posted by Forex Bob on Fri, 08/01/2008 - 9:05am in

Unemplyment rate riases to 5.7%
With the jobs picture still looking weak can one expect to see Fed raise?
For sure wage pressure outlook on inflation has to be held in check

 

Forex News: Unemployment Rate 5.5% NFP -62,000

Posted by Greg Michalowski on Thu, 07/03/2008 - 8:31am in

Unemployment Rate:5.5%
NFP:-62000
NFP Revision: to -62000 from -49000

The Initial Claims were much higher at 404,000. 

Continuing Claims 3,116,000

Forex News: NFP comes out at -49,000. 5.5% unemployment rate

Posted by Greg Michalowski on Fri, 06/06/2008 - 8:30am in

Rate is much higher. 

The dollar got hit on the unemployment rate which was much higher than expected.  This represents a bad number for the dollar as the jump has the potential to scare employers. Typically, when employment rate starts to rise, businesses who are holding off layoffs start to look toward laying off. This leads to a follow the leader mentality often where employers do not want be the last to cut employment.  As a result, the dollar should trade weak.

Forex Trading: One of the quietest NFP days

Posted by Greg Michalowski on Fri, 05/02/2008 - 12:38pm in

 

The NFP number today had a little of everything for everyone.  It was negative indicating ho-hum job picture but it was not bad with the employment rate remaining subdued, wages contained and the good sectors (Health, government, professional and business services and leisure still) adding jobs, while the bad sectors (construction, manufacturing, Retail Trade) subtracting jobs. 

Forex News: NFP -20,000. Unemployment rate 5.0%

Posted by Greg Michalowski on Fri, 05/02/2008 - 8:33am in

Better numbers should support the USD today.

Construction was the big decline at -68,000 jobs.  Financial jobs rose which is surprising. 

Forex News: NFP -80,000 Unemployment Rate 5.1%

Posted by Greg Michalowski on Fri, 04/04/2008 - 8:31am in

Revisions are worse with the last month going to -76,000 from -63,000

Pieces:

Construction -51,000
Manufacturing -48,000
Financial  - -5,000
Governement +18,000
Health and Educ  +42,000
Leisure and Hosp  +18,000

Analysis: 

Forex News Analysis: NFP Breakdown

Posted by Greg Michalowski on Fri, 02/01/2008 - 10:27am in

 

The Industry Sector numbers are the following:

Volatility will be the order of the day. USDJPY under pressure.

Posted by Greg Michalowski on Fri, 01/04/2008 - 10:29am in

The market is understandably volatile as the market digests the NFP and the dilemma at the Fed.   The NFP shows that the weakness from the housing problems may be spilling over into the general economy.  5.0% unemployment rate is certainly the main worry for the Fed.  On the otherhand is the inflation risks which are moving higher as oil and commodities hit new highs.  All point to a lower stock market in my opinion as earning have to suffer.

The USD gets hit after the number

Posted by Greg Michalowski on Fri, 01/04/2008 - 9:43am in

The Fed will be concerned about the job growth and especially the Unemployment rate rising to 5.0%.  This may lead to a 50 basis point cut at the end of the month (market is starting to price this in).  Bearish for the USD

Good producing jobs -75,000. Constrction -49,000.  Factory jobs -31,000.  Service Providing jobs +93,000.  Retail -24,000.  Government +31,000.