Initial Claims

The Initial Claims fell to 365,000 from a revised 374,000 (original 371,000).  But Continuing Claims were 3,073,000 which was unchanged from last weeks revised higher figure (was originally 3,065,000).  Employment losses are steady but Continuing Claims suggest workers are not finding the replacement jobs.

Initial Claims 357,000 lower than expected.  Continuing Claims 2,940,000 a touch higher than expected.

The trade figure will be a drag on GDP.

Initial Claims 407,000.  4 week moving average goes to 374,500 the highest level since November 2003.

Continuing Claims 2,937,000

Much worse than expectations.  Should weaken stocks and the USD.

During the recession/slow growth period in 2001-2003 period (SEE CHARTS BELOWS), the Initial claims peaked above 500 but centered around the  410,000 area.  This is just one week but it shows weakness that is equivalent with recessionary period.

Continuing Claims continued higher rising to 2784K from 2760K Expectation and 2761K last week.

The 4 week moving average for claims moved up to 360,500 which is the highest level since October 2005.  This should be bearish for the dollar and the stock market.

In the US the weekly Initial claims data will be released at 8:30.  Last week the claims decreased to 356,000 from 378,000 the previous week.  The claims data has been very volatile of late as faulty seasonals wrecked havoc on the figures in January.  Things should start to get back to normal, however.  This week the expectations are for a fall to 345,000.  Although this is st

The US Initial Claims data is due at 8:30 ET. The expectations are for a decline to 340,000 from the surprise 375,00 last week.  The initial claims data has been struggling with seasonals as two weeks ago the figure was a below trend 306,000.   So the market wiill be interested in seeing if the trend is continuing higher or is on a more moderate track.  The 4 week moving average is 325,750.  A number above 322,000 will raise that average this week.

The low Initial Claims data is confounding given the reports and expectations for the economy.  However, the recent data strength may be more about faulty seasonals than overlall strength in employment.

Economic figures like the Initial Claims have seasonal factors in an attempt to smooth out the swings due to things such as holidays.  The Christmas/New Year period for instance shows large movements in claims historically.  The chart below shows the spikes in unadjusted Initial Claims over the last 3 years.

The Initial Claims for Unemployment is due out at 8:30 ET today.  The expectations are for a rebound to 320,000 from a surprising 301,000 last week.   This value is near the low point of the release.  It also is surprising given the last employment report and of course the markets proclamation that the US is already in a recession.  If the US is in a recession the number should be closer to 400,000 not 300,000. 

Much lower than expected (stronger job picture). The 4 week moving average goes to 329,000 from 341,000.   A bit confusing given the last employment report.