forex trading

Well, it looks like past trades have come to fruition.  GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY have broken support on their descending triangles and have descended to new lows.  Please see my earlier post.  Just a follow up on what actually happened from this post.

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The USDCAD moved through the 1.0561 level and moved higher (1.0582 is the high so far). The pair also moved through the 50% retracement level of the last move down from the high on August 12th (CLICK HERE TO SEE AN ENLARGED CHART). That level comes in at 1.0567.  The 1.0561 to 1.0567 will now be watched by the longs as a level to hold.  The next level of resistance comes in at the 1.0605 level which is the 61.8% retracement level of the same move lower from August 12th.  (SEE PREVIOUS COMMENT). 

The markets are not being too friendly. The EURUSD has moved back lower as oil came off from the high.  Reports say that the path of the hurricane is too low.  

CLICK ON CHART TO EXPAND.

The USDCHF has not escaped the dollar buying.  It is currently appoaching some longer term resistance levels at the 1.0624 level - which corresponds with the May 2008 high - and the 1.0651 level which is the key 200 day MA level.  I would expect some profit taking sellers against these levels on the first attempt at least.  A break should not be faded,however. 

The USDJPY is testing highs of mid January.  The high for the year is 110.12 which was reached on January 9th.  Before that level, 109.93 is the 50% retracement level of the move down from the 124.13 high on June 22nd 2007 to the low of 95.73 on March 17th, 2008. 

As per prior posts, the pair has propeled higher after moving above the 200 day moving average. Since the break the pair has not closed below the key moving average.  See the chart below.

The EURUSD is moving back toward the unchanged level at 1.5453.  The pair did try to rebound overnight - moving back above the 1.5500 level to a high of 1.5516.  However, German Factory Orders down 2.9% reversed the gains.  This was the 7th decline in a row and Orders are down 6.1% for the year.  The talk is for negative growth for the secod quarter out of Germany, the largest eocnomy in the Eurozone (1/3 of EZ economy).  Within the report, foreign sales dropped 5.1%.  Talk of the higher EURO hurting export sales may start to be heard more as higher costs and higher EURO are putting the squeeze on manufacturers.

The markets have quieted down as London and Europe go home for the day.  The EURUSD is trading below the 100 hour moving average at the 1.5578 level but seems more inclined to range trade for the time being.  I would expect moves above and below as oil/stocks move around this afternoon. 

As the price of oil gets hit, the Canadian dollar does as well. The USDCAD is approaching the 11 month high price of 1.0376 (high today of 1.0362).  A break of the level should solicit stop buying as the USDCAD has been trading sideways for some time.  A break below this level, however, would most likely correspond with spot crude oil going through the key psychological level of $120.00 per barrel.   I would expect a good line of support at the the level.     

The lows from the June 23rd at 1.9585 is the next level of support on the chart.  On the upside will be watching the 61.8% retracement level of 1.9667 level.   Markets are very, very volatile.

Oil down $4.50 at $120.63 which is fueling the dollar buying.   

The EURUSD is moving below the 100 day moving average at 1.5664.  A close below this level should attract more longer term traders.  In June the price moved below and closed below the 100 day moving average for one day.