EUR/CHF

Ahead of the ECB rate decision we notice the EUR/CHF pair hovering above the 23.6% retracement level (using the 10/07 highs & 3/08 lows). With the pair selling off with all other Euro crosses throughout the summer, a suprise rate cut in the next 20 minutes could very easily push the pair toward to the 1.5332 lows.

The Euro Swissy pair has received a slight bid early in NY Trading today, breaking north of the 38.2% retracement and hitting the 55 hour moving average then trading lower. Using the hourly retracement analysis from the lows on July 16th and the highs of July 31st, as well as the 55 and 200 hour moving averages, we can see a number of important technical levels the pair needs to break to the upside in order to recapture recent levels. However, moving lower seems to be the easier path as a growing climate of concern surrounding the inflationary and slowing economic growth picture in the Euro Zone continues. In addition, the 55 hour moving average has again crossed below the 200 hour, continuing the negative sentiment.

Examining the Euro Swissy pair we notice that after a retest of recent lows (highlighted below), the pair seems to have some upward momentum. With the 55 hour moving average attempting to cross above the 200 hour moving average now, a break of the 38.2% retracement level could lead toward the 50% retracement and more resistance at the 1.6230 range.

EUR/CHF trying to retrace some steps in its uptrending path. 1.6100, its 50% retracement is not too far off...

EUR/CHF looking offered on an hourly and stochastics show that it may continue to be such if retracement levels hold as resistance: