Economic Data

Initial Claims 380,000.   The 4 week moving average moved lower to 363,750.  This series has been up and down with the last 5 weeks coming in at 406, 355,375, 345 and 380.  This is more volatile than normal.  

Continuing Claims break above 3mm at 3,019,000 - first time since April of 2004.  The 4 week moving average moves up to 2,979,000 the highest level since May 2004.  This is weaker and suggests continuing weak employment situation.

PCE comes in at 2.1 YoY which is as expected.  This is remaining steady

Personal Spending was higher than income.  So consumers are spending more than earning this month.  Not good given the current environment.

Not much economic data out during London session but NY will have Core CPI Data, Consumer Sentiment and Bernanke speaking.

Forex Video News: ASIAN REPORT Economic Releases for Thurs Feb 28th 2008

Video of the economic releases for Friday February 22nd 2008

Video of the economic releases for Tuesday February 19th 2008

The market is preparing for the trade data and initial claims.  The effects on the stock markets will be the key as the stock gains are supporting the carry trades and in turn EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY. 

The Initial Claims for Unemployment is due out at 8:30 ET today.  The expectations are for a rebound to 320,000 from a surprising 301,000 last week.   This value is near the low point of the release.  It also is surprising given the last employment report and of course the markets proclamation that the US is already in a recession.  If the US is in a recession the number should be closer to 400,000 not 300,000. 

Not much significant economic data out this session before the US holiday:

2:00am German PPI m/m, prev 0.8%, forecast 0.3%

3:15am Swiss PPI m/m, prev 0.3%, forecast 0.2%

4:30am UK M4 Money Supply m/m, prev 0.5%, forecast 0.5%

4:30am UK Public Sector Net Borrowing, prev 11.2B, forecast 7.0B

4:30am UK BSA Mortgage Approvals, prev 4.5B