Continuing Claims

The US Initial Claims and Continuing Claims are due at 8:30 AM EDT.  Last week Initial Claims fell to 461,000 from 477,000 the week prior.  The Continuing Claims meanwhile continued to move higher, reaching the highest level since June 2003 (rose to 3,711,000).  This week the expectation is for the Initial Claims to rise to 468,000 and Continuing Claims are forecast to go to 3,715,000. 

The weekly claims are a timely reflection of employment in the US economy.  Employment is a lagging indicator. That is, it will lag the overall economy as corporations will hold off laying off people as long as they can.  When the momentum starts, however, it often continues the trend for an extended period as the trickle down effect of job losses beget slower growth in other businesses initially not effected. 

Initial Claims: 406,000 versus from revised 372,000.  Higher than expected (376,000ish).  4 week moving average 382,500 from 378,000 prior week

Continuing Claims: 3,107,000 versus 3.104,000.  Down on the week.

The largest increase was in NY. 

The number suggests continued weakness in the employment sector as companies trim staff to offset higher costs.

GDP Boasted by inventories.  Exports and housing cancel each other out.

Initial Claims soared to 352,000.  4 week MA up to 335,500.