adp

Small Businesses-25K
Medium Businesses: -91
Large Businesses: -41

This is as expected but higher than the expectation of the -75,000 for Non-Farm Payroll on Friday.

Expected was -60k jobs

This morning the ADP and Challenger releases on employment showed job weakness - especially the ADP index.  Challenger came in at 46.7% increase in announced job layoffs from a year ago.  This was a touch higher from last months 45.6% and the ADP came in at minus 79,000 jobs.  The ADP statistic has been consistently understating the amount of job cuts on a monthly basis.  This month they seem to have gotten in line with the estimate ast the expectation is for a decline of 60,000 jobs tomorrow.  Risk for job cuts are on the downside as the margins from higher inflation are being squeezed forcing companies to start becoming more efficient.  One way is to layoff the marginal workers. 

Increases by 40,000 jobs.  Much higher than expected.  The dollar is firmer but the report has not tracked NFP so the effect should wear off.

Better than expected

Small business led the gain. 

                                   March     Feb.
                                    2008     2008
 Small (1-49)            51,158   51,103
       Level Change         55       16
 Medium (50-499)    45,608   45,603
      Level Change          5       -2
 Large (500>)          19,295   19,347
    Level Change          -52      -32

Weaker than expected.  This would imply an unchanged NFP with 20,000 Government jobs added.  Lowest since April 203,000.

The expectations are for a increase of 18,000 jobs.   Last month the number was reported up 130K and later revised to 126K.  The number diverged from the Non Farm Payroll figure which was reported at -17,000 jobs.  The report has not been a great predictor of the NFP of late.  Over the last 3 months the difference has been 143,000, 40,000 and 125,000. 

The NFP on Friday is expected to show a gain of 25,000 jobs. 

Although the ADP employment report was stronger than expected it should not dissuade the Fed from their recent initiative.   That is to heal the housing market and keep American's working.  (click for more...)

This is much stronger than expected.  Medium businesses increased jobs by 52,000. Small businesses +70,000.  Large Businesses +8000.   Goods producing sector 11,000.  Construction down 13,000.    

The dollar is getting a bid off of the report.  The Fed will certainly be taking all information in account at the meeting.