Forex

Next week is a relatively quiet week with regard to economic releases and events. However, in the US the key home sales data will be released, in the UK the minutes to the MPC meeting will be released along with Retail Sales and GDP.  Finally, in New Zealand they will have an interest rate meeting which could result in a surprise move. 

To preview the key releases and events click on the following link

CLICK HERE TO ACCESS THE PDF REPORT

Thank you for your continued business and have a great weekend.

Greg Michalowski

Dow up 185.

Oil at 130.76.  $130 support holding so far.   As a guide for inflation watching, the front Crude Oil contract closed the month of June at around the $140 level.   At $130, it would finally represent a break in the energy inflation that has been persistently leading to oversized gains in the CPI adn PPI inflation indicators.  Is it too late, however.       

EURUSD testing 1.5823 level which is the 50% retracement level of the last move higher.  Watching this level.  See chart below.

NY Times: "Fannie and Freddie Grew, Protected by Washington "

WSJ:"Fannie Mae Ugly"
        "Crisis Deepens as Big Bank Fails"

The National Australia Bank Business Confidence will be released at 9:30 PM EDT.  Last month the index came in at -4.  This was the 5th month in a row that the index has been negative but the level was higher than the recent lows of -8.0.  A negative number means those business seeing a weaker economy outnumber those expecting a growing one. 

There is no estimate for todays figures.  However, the recent change in Job Advertisements and Construction PMI came in weak yesterday. 

The weekly report of the key economic news and events for the week of July 7th to July 11th can be found by clicking on the following link.

CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEKLY REPORT IN PDF FORMAT 

Thank you for your continued business, have a wonderful and safe weekend and a profitable week trading.

Greg Michalowski
Chief Foreign Exchange and Economic Analyst

* NOTE: The report was updated with the more recent UK Manufacturing Production chart on Sautrday at 1:00 PM

The market is moving in a random fashion with no news to trade on and all markets closed.  The EURUSD squeezed up to the high teens  up to the London close, but has moved back down on little volume since.  Banks are using skeleton crews with some market makers starting to widen out the prices.  The movements will be purely random.  Anything can happen. 

Unemployment Rate:5.5%
NFP:-62000
NFP Revision: to -62000 from -49000

The Initial Claims were much higher at 404,000. 

Continuing Claims 3,116,000

Find attached a detailed preview of the US Unemployment release due out tomorrow at 8:30 AM EDT.  To access the report in PDF format click here:

June Unemployment.pdf .

As always, the event risk for the market increases greatly during this release.  The volatility and risk will be magnified by the ECB rate announcement and subsequent press conference by ECB President Jean Claude Trichet at the same time of the release. 

As a result, analyze open positions and make the necessary changes to reflect the increased risk and volatility for the events that will take place at 8:30 tomorrow morning.

Looking at the GBPUSD chart, the pair looks tired.  The 1.9922 level acted as a floor for nearly 12 hours.  The bottom gave way, but was able to break back above where the high was tested on three separate hourly bars.  Failure to move to new highs led to a move back down below what is now a ceiling at the 1.9922 level.   1.9879 was the low yesterday.  This will need to be broken to push lower.