Forex Bob's blog

price paid  lower form last month at 88.5
Dollar rangey after the release - Dow still touch soft today -50

Unemplyment rate riases to 5.7%
With the jobs picture still looking weak can one expect to see Fed raise?
For sure wage pressure outlook on inflation has to be held in check

GDP  2q +1.9% vs expected 2.3%
CHI PMI 50.8 vs 49.0
CHI PMI - prices paid the highest  since 1980 at 90.7

Expected was -60k jobs

But he feels the downturn will not be that severe
The excesses that caused the last slump are not in place today

Actual -15.8 yoy Last -15.2 yoy Housing prices continue to be a concern - along with banking - consumer spending - loan growth

recent ranges contain the FX market
Maybe the retails numbers out of Tokyo tonight can get things moving

"Today our primary focus is supporting Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac in their current form as they carry out their
important mission.
   
    We appreciate Congress' important efforts to complete
legislation that will help promote confidence in these
companies. WE are maintaining a dialogue with regulators and
with the companies. OFHEO will continue to work with the
companies as they take the steps necessary to allow them to
continue to perform their important public mission."

*PAULSON SAYS FOCUS IS BACKING FANNIE, FREDDIE IN CURRENT FORM

*PAULSON: TREASURY, REGULATORS IN TALKS WITH FANNIE, FREDDIE

Dow sells off and dollar turns lower as well

No time as to when he will speak
usd/yen bouncing off lows at 105.70 to 106.10

May usd trade balance was -59.8 bio vs expected -62.5b
Imporrt prices index rose both month on month and year on year
M-O-M was 2.6% vs 2.0%
Y-O-Y  index was 20.5% vs expected 18.6%

Continuing Claim a touch higher at 3202 vs 3140 expected

According to a Labor Department Spokesperson the large decline may be due to timing of seasonal adjustments which anticipates auto layoffs in the first two weeks of July, and fewer occurred than expected. Auto makers generally reduce staff to upgrade factories in preparation of new car models.  In addition another influence might have been that the  survey was conducted during a holiday week which tends to distort numbers. 

The Continuing Claims moved sharply higher.  This is most likely a truer reflection of the employment picture in the US. The 4 week moving average rose to 3,126,000 from 3,110,000 the previous week.  This is the highest level since February 2004.

The bad news continues for these depressed lenders

Crude inventories -5.8m vs -2m expected
dollar yen lower right after the release tetsing support 107.00-10

housing market continues to suffer in May

dollar has not reacted  - more focus on oil seeling off and equity marktes getting ready for earnings season

Siemans Ag the biggest engineering company in Europe
will cut jobs to boost profit margins

Is the strong Euro starting to take it's toll on Germany?

Prices paid stronger as well at 91.5.  Inventories up as well.  Employment down.  Imports down and exports down.  The contributors were not the ones that are beneficial (i.e. prices, inventories). 

CHICAGO PURCHASERS INDEX AT 49.6
CHICAGO NAPM EMPLOYMENT INDEX AT 46.7
CHICAGO NAPM PRICES PAID INDEX 85.5