Basil Fayad's blog

- Says Credit downturn is far from over

-Does not expect  to use the 30B line of credit with Treasury

-Expects  banks to build reserves for several quarters to cover credit losses

-Confident that industry reserves are more than enough to cover failed bank losses

-Several dozen US banks are borderline "well capitalized"

Expected at 50M

Prior 411M

Forecast at 0.1B  Previous 0.4B

Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.  Released monthly and if actual number is greater than forecast it usually means a positive outlook for AUD.  (More goods and services are exported than imported).  If more goods and services are being exported it means that there is a higher demand for the currency (more buying) which raises price.

Prior at 1.8%

Actual -3.3

This is the change in the global price of exported commodities.  It is dervied from the country's main commodity exports that are sampled on the global market and compared to previous sampling.

Actual 0.3% 

Expected at  0.4%

Prior 0.6%

AUD GDP has remained at 0.6% for the past two readings.  AUD has been steadily declining with other currencies against USD and a positive number could keep it afloat, while a negative number could send it to levels not seen since August of 2007.

Out at 39.3

Prior 42.8

This is the lowest reading ever on record, and the 4th consecutive decline.

Survey of about 200 service-based companies which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories

Expected +49

Actual 52

Prior 51

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ABC Consumer Confidence Out at -47

Expected at -49

Prior -50

Building Approvals Out at -2.3 MoM  Forecast at +0.5%

Building Approvals Out at -6.4% YoY Forecast at -7.8%

This is the change in the number of new building approvals issued.  If the actual number is better than the forecast it could bode well for AUD.

Said that Japanese Economy is likely to be sluggish for a while

If his comments are more hawkish than expected it would be good for JPY.  Althought the BOJ has just recently said it offered to buy 400 billion yen in treasury bills outright from 9/5.  For the full release please go to BOJ website:

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/index.htm

Monetary Base Out at -0.2%

Expected at -0.7%

Current Account Balance

Expected at 011650M   Actual -12774  Prior -19428

Labor Cash Earnings YoY

Expected at +0.3%  Actual +0.3%   Prior +0.4%

Inventories

Expected at +0.6%  Actual 0.3%  Prior 0.9%

AUD TD SEcurities Inflation Index

MoM  Prior +0.4%  Actual +0.1%

YoY  Prior +4.6%  Actual +4.2%

" Inflation remains stubbornly high with the monthly gauge being a shock once account is taken  of the obvious fall in petrol prices.  Inflation pressures remain elevated despite the clear slowing in the economy."  said Joshua Williamson senior economist at TD SEcurities.

AIG Performance of Manufacturing Index

Prior 46.9

Actual 47

Expected at +0.5%

Actual +0.4%

Nomura Japanese PMI

Expected at 46.0

Prior 47.0

Actual 46.9