USDCHF falls after breaking intraday support
The USDCHF fell below the 100, then 200 bar MA on the intraday chart above, and that seems to have ignited stop selling. The price is testing the 50% of the move up from Friday’s low. That level comes in at the 0.91925. Below that is the 200 hour MA at the 0.9187 level. So good support.
EURUSD pops higher . Test 50% of the range and 100 and 200 hour MA
The 100 and 200 hour MA are converged at the 1.3122 level. I would expect sellers against this area.
There is no news to account for the sharp move higher.
The move higher did breach the 50% of the move down from late Friday’s high. That level came in at the 1.3098 level. This was an earlier high for the day and stops seems to have been triggerer on the break.
USDCAD ignores the better data.
The Canada Ivey PMI index moved higher to 64.1 from 63.5 and much higher than expectations. Yet despite the better data, the USDCAD had moved sharply to the upside. The move higher took the price back above the 100 hour MA at the 0.9963 level and up to test the midpoint of the days range.
The trading today seems to still be controlled by shorter term traders who are quick to cover. On the move to the downside off the better data, the price fell briefly below the 200 day MA at the 0.9963 level. Only to have the price reach a low of 0.9959 and fail to move lower. Once that happened, the squeeze higher ensued.
Now with the price back above the 0.9963 and other support at 0.9967 and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart above at the the 0.9970, traders will likely look to lean against those support levels. The upside target would be the high for the day.
GBPUSD breaks above trend line resistance
The GBPUSD is moving above the trendline resistance against the 1.5768 level and will now look toward the 1.57867 Fibo Retracement level. Above that the 100 hour MA at the 1.5797 will be a target. A move above this MA willl not be welcomed by those looking for continued downside momentum today. The price tested the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) and found the expected buying interest.
Bullard expects high employment for a while
- Sees only a slow recovery in jobs market
- Zero interest rate policy punishes savers
- 2% inflation target will serve the nation well
- US suffered one time shock to wealth
- THere is no value in letting inflation rise
- Fed must keep inflation stable.
Greek Government Official: Papendemos to meet with leaders tomorrow.
They were expected to meet today. The expectation is Papademos meets with Troika today.
EURUSD moves back toward the days low
The EURUSD tested the 38.2% of the move down from the high on Friday and rotated back lower. The low from last week came in at the 1.3026 level. The low today came in at 1.3029. The range from last week was a narrow 201 pips. There were only 4 weeks in 2011 when the range was less than this amount. The expectation would be for a larger range this week. Therefore on a break of either range this week, look for momentum.
The next target on the downside on a break would be the 1.29958 level which is the 38.2% of the move up from the January low to the high at the end of the month.
No Greece PSI or austerity agreement sends the EURUSD lower.
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