USDJPY tests topside trendline target
EURUSD moves above 1.3026 high.
Looking for momentum to keep the bulls in charge. The 1.32235 is the next hurdle followed by 1.3260. The 1.3206 and 1.3200 are support levels off trend lines in the chart above.
EURUSD looks to test the 9 day high
The EURUSD is moving closer and closer to the 9 day high at the 1.3226 level. Traders who are long will likely sell against the level but a move above should not be faded. The price has been in a 201 pip trading range for the last 9 days of trading.
The price has been buoyed by the apparent agreement within the Greek coalition. This will free up 130 billion tranche from the EU/IMF which will allow for the interest payment due in March. Support at eh 1.3176-84 level now.
USDJPY finds sellers against retracement level
The USDJPY tested the 38.2% of the move down from the January 24th high to the low reached on February 1st. That level comes in at the 76.879 level. The high today reached 76.85 and has backed off. The next support level comes in at the trendline at the 76.65 level. Below that the 200 hour MA at the 76.55 level is the next target. The pair was supported today on the official word that the BOJ did in fact intervene in the market (13.2 billion). The intervention occurred on October 31st. On that day the low for the USDJPY was 75.56 and the high reached 79.52. The price has since moved down to the lowest level since that intervention at the 76.017 level. BOJ Shirakawa amd Finance Minister Azumi has each stated recently that they won’t rule out any action to curb the rise including intervention.
EURUSD moves higher on Greek statement (Again)
The market is clearly trading with short term intentions in place. Markets are sloppy. The market moved quickly to the upside on yet another comment about a Greek bailout. Because of the headline effect it seems that the real movers in the EURUSD market are simply waiting for the dust to all settle. This helps contribute to the up and down action.
Nevertheless the EURUSD has moved above the previous high for the day above 1.3167 and looks toward the next target at the 1.3184 area. The high from last week came in at the 1.3226 level. Other highs during the week were at 1.3217, 1.3211 and 1.3204. These will also be targets above.
On the downside the 100 and 200 hour MA have converged at the 1.3130 level and this will now be support for intraday traders.
Recognize the markets are sloppy and therefore deserve being patient for risk defined entries. At those points, the market will work for you or you get out. The best way to define risk is still technical levels. Keep stops in place and be prepared for a bumpy ride.
Canada permits send the USDCAD lower
The Building Permits is at the highest level in 4 1/2 years after a surprising 11.1% gain (expected 1%). The USDCAD has moved lower on the news and pushed back below the 100 hour MA at the 0.9973 level. Traders should use this level to sell against. The close from yesterday came in at the 0.9957. This is the next level to get through on the downside.
Reserve Bank of Australia surprises the market. Dollar gains vs EURUSD but gains contained
Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision tonight at 10:30 PM ET
The expectation is for a decline to 4% from 4.25% . The reasons for the change is because of slow employment growth, low inflation, and concerns of the effects of a persistently strong AUD. Click on the picture below for a visual snap shot of the key economic releases and the recent history (over the last year). Of note is the job change. Over the last 12 months a total of only 3,000 jobs have been created, with the last two months shedding 36.8K. Retail Sales today came out weaker than expected at -0.1%. CPI inflation YoY is down to 3.1% from a peak of 3.6%. In the 1st quarter, a 1.6% increase from a year ago should be replaced with a much lower reading. This should help to bring inflation down even further. Consumer Confidence in December reached -8.3 before rebounding in the current month. A positive is the global growth is improving which should help.
From a technical perspective the price came off the highest level since August 2011 today on the back of the weaker Retail Sales. The 100 hour MA and trendline support comes in at the 1.0700 level. A move below this should lead to further downward pressure in the new trading day. On the topside a move above the 1.0753 targets the high at 1.0792 with a break of that level targeting 1.0844.
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