EURUSD continues to fight the Jekyll and Hyde fight
The support below at the 1.3483 and the 100 and 200 bar MA levels (currently at the 1.3492 and 1.3489 level respectively) and the topside resistance at the 1.3431-39 area keep the EURUSD in a Jekyll and Hyde costume. One minute it looks like the price will break higher, the next minute, whoops, back down (see chart above – see prior post).
What is to be watched is the failure to extend the move below the 1.3483 level today for the second time in a weeks time. This pause may give the bottom pickers a reason to be more confident in buying on dips. Looking at the daily chart, the price has moved down from a high of 1.4579 to 1.3444 or 1135 pips. This is the last leg down (there was a prior move which took the price from 1.5144 to the 1.4240 area) . The price tested the 1.3483 retracement level twice now and a close above the level would be the second failure. Could we see a correction? It is possible. The key level to watch will be the 1.3483 level today. Watch it closely.
I know the trend is your friend and the trend is down, but watch the 1.3483 level for possible clues.
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Well, at least it has enough range to make some good, short term trades on both ends; buy and sell.
This is better than any ride at Six Flags. Hehe.
It has been a choppy session for this pair. Anything is possible.
Will it move down or up?
I shall vote for more choppy movements.
Range 1.3450 to 1.3585/3600
I would have to agree with you… It’s back up once again.
So, let s wait for 1.3484 to test again. lol
Market forces are worried about $1.3483 level as the next leg of support below here is $1.3329. Not a “big drop” but the gap is wide enough to cause concern.
3 non-leveraged positions with targets $1.3588, 3648, soft 3884 with a trail.
Time will tell how this pans out
it was supossed to go down……….right
The EURUSD is trying to find a base and move higher but a move below 1.3530 area would be worrisome for dip buying bulls off the failure to break and close below the 1.3483 level. From a fundamental standpoint the EURUSD is “supposed” to go down on the back of Greece issues and contagion but sometimes the market does not necessarily do what it is supposed to do. We will be watching 1.3530 though for clues. Below is bearish. Above is still bullish.
thank you greg…
Yeah Greg,
You figure out the turning point of the this long time downside trend of the eurusd
today it reaches 1.3683 means it is now up 200pip from the 61.8% at 1.3483
my question and it is VERY IMPORTANT to the FX traders:
How can i determine the rebound point (the hold) is it by the close of the candle or the shape of the candle or by looking at a forming pattern or the slow of the momo (the volume) or the second leg of the …etc?
I hope,Greg that you make a webinar for this subject
“How can the hold or the rebound in the trend can be determined”
Thank you very much for this unique teaching,
Regards,
Jawdat
it looks like germany is bailing out greece……….any idea for eurusd next week….
Sorry for not responding but listen to the weekend report. I do the EURUSD first. The fundamentals are quite bearish but there are still reasons to be a little bullish for a corrective move at least. All will depend on our moving averages of course. Have a great weekend. Greg
Greg,
Please answer my question.
Thank you very much
Jawdat
Jawdat,
I use moving averages, and Fibo Retracements and trendlines to determine the bullish and bearish bias. When the market moved above the 1.3483 level, it was back above it gave me some indications the price was going higher (or gave me a level to sell against). The price did in fact move to a high or 1.3683. Now to get out of a trade I can use the same clues. For example, if the price moves below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart it can signal that the trend is over and the price should start to move lower. You can look at old highs (like 1.3627 and when the price moved back below that level, that signals a possible high is in place. If you were to put in a Fibonacci from Feb 17th to the low on Feb 19th the 61.8% retracement came in at 1.3657. When the price broke back below that level, it gives a reason to think the trend higher may be over.
The point is, that when traveling on a bullish highway, you need to reach exits along that highway in direction of the trend. If the price starts to show signs that the price is exiting the trend and looks more bearish, then the bias in you mind should switch. The tools I use give reasons to get in, it also gives reasons to get out and/or go short. Ride the trend until the market says, get out.
I hope this helps….
Greg
PS I can look to address this at a webinar.
I answered the question. sorry for the delay…Greg
No need to say sorry…I thank you and I appreciate your valuable knowledge