$USDJPY hanging around 88.00 level after overnight plunge
The USDJPY plunged in early trade on the back of slower growth fears which led to flight into the JPY as a safe haven refuge. The fall sent the pair through the support at the 88.00 level and down to a low at 87.35. Higher stocks has pushed the price back up toward the 88.00 level where the market is currently trading above and below.
The 88.00 level will remain a key level to watch today (this price was the low price in October 2009). Above the level should be bullish from a trading perspective, while below would be a bearish. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is currently at the 87.95 level as well. The midpoint of the days high/low range is at 88.02. All of which suggest the area is a level of balance, but we know a balanced market will lead to a unbalanced market. SO be on alert for a move away at some point.
Should the market move higher, the next target is the 88.17 level where the 200 bar MA is found. A break above should confirm the bullish bias and lead to further upside gains today
ON the downside, Watch the 87.78 level. This is the midpoint of the move up from the November 27th low. The 200 hour MA is around this level as well (87.83 currently). A move back below this level would confirm the bearish bias and should see further selling pressure.
Loading ...
hey greg…
one question…my only problem is SL. what is your policy about that because for the last 3 days i had a winning trade and stoped me out for a few pips and then went up! grrrrrrrrrr……
Goran,
I would need to see the levels you got in and the SL levels you were using to make a judgement on whether the levels were good SL levels or you were just unlucky and caught up in the choppy market conditions. The current market (i.e. right now in particular), the market is very choppy and sometimes those conditions make the technicals less effective. We don’t profess 100% success of course. But what I suggest is go back look at the trade location, re-analyze the reason for the trade to see that it makes sense, and see if the SL you used was the right SL level given the knowns at the time. If you want to email me a trade or two I can take a look too.
Greg
ok…would you give me your mail please…
greg@fxdd.com
Hi Greg,
Yesterday i shorted the Euo/USD pair @1.4694 with S/L @ 1.4734 thinking that it would further fall.
It went to 1.4667 then raised above 1.4734 so stopped out.
Is it a right trade? Can you analyse and tell me so that atleast in the future i will avoid such trades.
Thanks
You sold when the price was below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart which is a bearish bias, but the price was already down for the day and the 100 bar MA was too far away from the price for my liking.
The price toward the end of the day moved up to test the 100 bar MA in the early Far East trade moved to the low of 1.4667 then started to rebound. When the price moved back above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (at around the 1.4707 level), you should have gotten out of the trade at that point. The 1.4693 level was a floor for most of the last NY session yesterday afternoon (apart from the quick move lower). The move down in the early Far East session followed by the quick move back above the low from yesterday should have been a clue the downside had buyers. Overall, the risk on the trade was too rich for my blood. Try to trade more around the moving averages. Trade location and risk is most important for success. Keep risk to a minimum.
Great Greg,
Clear comments. Thanks.. I will follow this advice in the future.
Greg,
You use SMA not EMA?
Another question:
100 SMA line crossed over the 200 SMA line , however price is below 200 SMA.
What does it mean? Thanks.
Mani,
Yes I use SMA.
I trigger bias off the 100 bar MA. So if the price is below the 100 bar MA, the bias is negative until the price moves back above. At that point the bias flips to bullish.
Greg
Greg i was wondering where can i get pass fundamental report and chart dating back from one years. which can i get these information
Stephen,
FXDD has historic data going back a number of years via our platform. Anyone can open a demo account by going to http://www.fxdd.com/en/trading-software/platform-comparison.html. The demo is free. It feeds real time data as it happens, and has historical data of course. All the fundamental reports we produced are on the commentary pages at http;//forex.fxdd.com . I don’t know if this answers your question fully. If you need more specific info, send me an email at greg@fxdd.com Thanks Stephen.