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$USDJPY approaches the 100 hour MA at the 89.05 level

Written November 23, 2009 at 11:33 AM EST by Greg Michalowski 

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The USDJPY made a new low today (for the current move) at the 88.56 level.  The market has rebounded and is back up testing the 100 hour moving average.  The range for the last 2+ days in the USDJPY has been very contained. The low came in at the 88.56 level today. The high reached 89.12. Moreover the price has held below the 100 hour MA over that time (and in fact back to November 13th when it broke at the 89.93 level). 

The price reached a high of 89.02 last hour. The price has moved back down away from the level, but the price action remains quiet. 

A clue for a move in a market often comes after a period of quiet, consolidative trading.  This is characteristic of a non-trending markets and non-trending markets will transition into a trending market at some point.  SO be alert for a break either up or down. A move above the 100 hour MA followed by momentum will be a clue of a potential move.   A move below the 88.75  level, should be a bearish signal. Be alert for a directional move in one direction or another.

13 Responses to “$USDJPY approaches the 100 hour MA at the 89.05 level”

  1. Ghadeer on November 23rd, 2009 1:03 pm

    Dear Greg,

    I thank you and I appreciate what you are doing to the traders in this website.

    It is a unique service and put you in the first position,KEEP UP this excellant work.

    Just I want to ask if is it a possible to make a monitor in FXDD trading platform

    to send an SMS indicator alert to your client’s mobile in case of: for example a

    100H MA is breached.

    also if there is a scanner which can be set up to send an alert in case of a pre-

    set condition for many pairs scanned all the time.

    this is a valuable tool which will save time and effort and it will let the machine

    which doesn’t feel tired to be an assistance for the FX traders because we are

    not all the time in front of our PC’s but we are all the time near our phone

    mobiles.

    Thank You,

    Regards,

    Ghadeer

  2. Greg Michalowski on November 23rd, 2009 1:30 pm

    Ghadeer,

    I do not know of that functionality and I wish I know more about programming expert advisors, but unfortunately, I am not versed nor do I know if it can be done. Sorry. Perhaps someone out there knows…

    Greg

  3. Ghadeer on November 23rd, 2009 1:47 pm

    Greg,

    Thank you for your reply.

    I have the indicator alert within the GFT trading platform which I have account with.

    but the indicator alert system which they have needs improvement to read and

    follow the moving MA and others.

    their platform which has this facility is in this link:-

    http://www.gftforex.com/software/dealbook360/index.asp

    but you have a better training and comments,I think I will move to you one day.

    Thank you,

    Best regards,

    Saud Ghadeer
    FX trader and computer professional

  4. Greg Michalowski on November 23rd, 2009 2:02 pm

    I was trying to work with the tab. You can send an Alerts tab in the Terminal to an email address by enabling emails first in Tools Options and the Email tab. That will only allow a email for a price target…not an MA target. Now there are ways to construct an Expert Advisor that can execute a systematic trading strategy. The question becomes, can you send the email alert when the MA condition is met. ANy help out there? Greg

  5. S. Ghadeer on November 24th, 2009 12:10 pm

    Dear Greg,

    The price alert is not important as the indicator alert because the imprtance of

    the price alert is just to alert the trader when a certain point (breakout/breakdown)

    is reached,but the indiactor alert will track the indicator such the 100H MA or the

    200H MA and compare its current value with the current price then if it is below or

    above will send the SMS indicator alert or in some cases it will send just an

    email alert and the mobile company will handle it as an SMS to save money on

    the currency trading broker.

    In the trading platform in the above link this facility is found.

    The solution of what you ask for Mr. Michalowski can be done by a programmer

    and he conects his program module to MT-4 .

    Thank You and Sorry for late reply,

    Best Regards to my teacher Greg,

    S.Ghadeer

  6. S. Ghadeer on November 24th, 2009 12:22 pm

    note:-

    The price alert will alert the trader when a fixed price point is reached,and as we all know that point is continuously changed,for example if it is a Fibo level it will change when the top or the bottom limit is changed,in this case we have to re measure the fibo levels.

    But the indicator alert will track the current value of the MA and compare it with current price in this case you have we leave the hard monitoring work to this accurate machine and we use our time and effort to learn from our teacher Greg.

    Thank you

  7. Shawn on November 27th, 2009 6:06 pm

    never mind all together lol. you can’t post some brackets because the site software takes pieces of it out

  8. Greg Michalowski on November 27th, 2009 6:09 pm

    Shawn…Send the code via email at greg@fxdd.com I know what you are talking about….

    Thanks

    Greg

  9. S. Ghadeer on November 30th, 2009 1:18 pm

    Sorry Shawn, I was hurry in writting it, I didn’t verify it,and it is not my M. tongue

    also.

    no problem as long as the useful idea which I want to pass,you receive it already.

  10. luke on November 30th, 2009 4:08 pm

    Hi what does Exponential stand for?

    I’m thinking of changing my 100 and 200 ma to Ema because if you put a 10 ,25 and 50 EMA they all line up as the 200 100 ma on all time frames you talk about the simple ma so I’m am a little apprehensive of whether to switch to the simple ma to Ema on the 100 and 200 but i do use the Ema 10 25 and 50. I ‘ve also been trading the news/cal the numbers are being realised the prev and the forecast which is of more importance.

    How long does it take for the market to digest the numbers? Is it instantly or does it take a day or to or more? And do you take the previous number and write down the difference to try and figure out which way the market is going to react? Thanks that would be much appreciated

    PS I’m not trading this week unfortunately i’ve had to go back to work. I will be adding more money before Christmas. Whats the best date to deposit for a bonus?

    thank you luke..

  11. Greg Michalowski on November 30th, 2009 5:06 pm

    The Exponential moving average will weight the most recent data more than the older data. The theory is the most recent data is more important from a momentum standpoint than the older data. As a result, the EMA will tend to be quicker to react to a price move. That is the theery behind the Exponential moving average.

    Does it work better?

    I don’t know to be honest with you. What I do know is I a am confident with the 100 and 200 bar MA in my analysis and feel that the mkt is also confident with looking at it. having said that if you find that the 10, 25 and 50 EMAs are something you are confident with using, by all means use them. It is your choice.

    What I teach however, is don’t follow too many different moving averages as like too many cooks in the kitchen, too many moving averages simply make things more confusing. More confussion brings more fear and more fear ruins the best of traders. Fear often makes you do the wrong things. You don’t think logically and that is bad for successful trading.

    What you want to do instead is know your rules. I.e. if the price moves above this moving average the bias is bullish. IF it goes below, the bias is bearish. Etc. Be consistent.

    Regarding the economic numbers, the market reacts instantly to the releases. The reaction is assumed to be versus what was expected and what actually came out. It is assumed the expected release was already discounted in the price of the currency pairs. Now the market in theory is discounting information all the time. So if the number comes out, it reacts. Then in theory the market starts to discount other information like the next numbers, like the implications of the number on the future numbers, like the implication on the stock market, on oil prices on the price of commodities. All get mixed in a big pot called the market and the auction process of buying and selling ensues. If you think of price discovery in this fundamental terms, it is no wonder trading fundamental news can be difficult.

    What I have learned is the technical charts tend to tell you what the fundamentals are saying. The price action and things like moving averages and fibonacci’s and trendlines give traders clues to market direction. Recognizing patterns and tendencies also help by giving clues. When the 100 and 200 bar MA converge with the price that is a pattern that seems to anticipate a trend type move. The clues you search for, ultimately give you a trade that has a defined risk and target profit levels. From there, either the price goes toward the target or it does not and you close your trade at the loss you expected.

    I hope this helped you Luke,
    Greg

  12. luke on November 30th, 2009 5:32 pm

    yep im with you on that 2 many cooks spoil the brot!! .whith in reason you can place any ma and the price followes it the 100/200 r good from 1m from the 1month i like to see them all on 1 chart and the only way you can do it without programming is with the ema.

    trading the news/cal the numbers are being realised the prev and the forecast which is of more importance.

    How long does it take for the market to digest the numbers? Is it instantly or does it take a day or to or more? And do you take the previous number and write down the difference to try and figure out which way the market is going to react? Thanks that would be much appreciated

  13. luke on November 30th, 2009 5:38 pm

    yes that helps thanks .

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