Canada Retail Sales and US Existing Home Sales due out this morning
As we enter the US Thanksgiving Day week (on Thursday), the economic calendar will start with the Canadian Retail Sales report which will be released at 8:30 AM. The expectation is for a gain of +0.6% with Ex Auto sales coming in at +0.4%.
The Canadian Retail Sales have been improving in 2009 as the global economy improves. Gas station sales have been the chief contributor over the last 3 months with a 21.8% annualized gain. However, over the same time period strong gains in pharmacy sales (+13%), Building Supplies (+3.9%) and Furniture and electronics (+3.1%) have also led to gains in ex auto sales. This segment of the report has shown increases in 3 of the last 4 months indicating the economy is showing some signs of bottoming across various sectors.
At 10:00 AM this morning, the US Existing Home Sales for the month of October will be released. The expectation is for the annualized sales pace to rise to 5.7 million units. This is up from the 5.57 million pace last month and would represent a 2.3% MoM gain. Be careful in interpreting the MoM % gain as there is usually a revision to the prior month that can skew the figures. So watch the annualized rate to gauge the strength or weakness of the report. A sales pace of 5.7 million would be the highest since July 2007. The 1st time homeowners rebate program is helping sales - especially in the low price range.
Also released with the annualized sales pace is the months supply of homes on the market. Last month, the supply of homes fell sharply to 7.8 months which is the lowest supply since March of 2007. A movement lower would be good news for the housing market. Watch this number. There is no estimate for this figure.
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