US Retail Sales and Bernanke highlight the events today
The US Retail Sales for the month of october will be released at 8:30 AM today. The expectation is for a gain of 1.0% for the month with the ex- Auto showing a smaller gain of +0.4%. Earlier this month the October Vehicle Sales for the US showed a rise to 10.45 Million units vs 9.2 Million. Last month Retail Sales fell by -1.5% as the cash for clunker program expired. However, the fall was less than expectations and the core measure also showed a 0.5% increase for the month. The Ex Auto increase expected this month would be the 3rd straight monthly increase.
Also out this morning is the Empire Manufacturing Index for the month of November. This is one of a number of regional indices which show the strength or weakness of the local manufacturing economy. The expectation is for a decline t0 30.00 from 34.57 last month. Last month this index rose greater than expectations and rose to the highest level since May 2004. The index surveys Manufacturers as whether or not they are growing. A measure above zero is indicative of growth, while one below zero indcates contraction. The index has been positive for 3 months (this is to be the 4th month above zero). The government stimulus program and cash for clunkers has helped the manufacturing momentum in the area which accounts for 6% of economic activity in the state of NY.
In Canada Manufacturing Sales for September will also be released at 8:30 AM. The expectation is for a rebound from a -2.1% decline last month. This month a gains of +1.7% is expected. Last month the decline was attributed to fewer shipments of aircraft and Autos. A stronger number typically benefits the CAD$ (USDCAD down) while a weaker number will tend to have the effect of weakening the currency. However, with the US Retail Sales coming out at the same time the market can be more volatile.
Fed’s Bernanke is due to speak about the economic outlook at the Economic Club Luncheon in NY at 12:15 AM NYT. It is unlikely that the Fed change anything materially since the last interest rate decision which took place in early November.
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