Non Farm Payroll today. The look in pictures (and some words).

Last month the NFP lost 216K jobs which was the 20th straight decline in jobs.  Six of the last 7 months have shown improvement.  The estimate this month is for a change of -175K. However, there has been some last minute changes in the last 24 hours which has probably pushed that estimate up to something in the order of -225K to -250K.  This may have contributed to some of the weakness in the stock market yesterday. The changes were in reaction to things like the ISM and Intial Claims data which did not improve Month on Month and Week on Week. 

The Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 9.8% from 9.7% last month.  This would be the highest reading in this since June 1983 whent the rate was last above 10% (at 10.1%).   In addition to those people who are declaring to be unemployed there are others who are also underemployed and/or who have taken themselves out of the people looking for work category. If you are not looking for work (i.e. discouraged worker) you are not unemployed or employed.  This figure is upwards of 16% which is a scary number. 

Last month Construction and Manufacturing led the declines. Education and Health (this is Health care sector) was the only sector which showed a gain. That sector added 52k jobs.  The improvement in the magnitude of the decline in each sector was helped by less negative numbers in each group.

Since the start of this current jobs recession, Manufacturing has lost 2 millon  jobs.  The Trade, Transportation and Utilities lost 1.58 millon  jobs. The Professional and Business Services sector including Temporary workers, has lost 1.509 millon  people have lost jobs and 1.430 million workers in the Construction industry have lost jobs.  The Health Care and Government industry is the only sectors which have added jobs since January 2008.  Health Care has added 751 thousand jobs.  and Government has added 118 thousand jobs. 

With this months decline, it is likely that the number of people who have lost jobs will go over the 7 million mark.  To date since January 2008 when the first negative job number was announced 6,929,000 people have gone from employed to unemployed.  The 3 million jobs the Obama administration was to have added, do seem to be coming through but who knows what the numbers would be like without stimulus.  Perhaps it saved 3 million extra workers from being unemployed.

Temporary Workers can be considered a leading indicator. They go down when employment is going down and may rebound before overall jobs increase.  It is easier to hire back the unemployed from the temporary ranks before making them full time. 

Retail Trade jobs are an indicator of the mall traffic.  If jobs start showing up here, it should be a good sign for spending and retail confidence.  If it does not get better, the opposite may be occurring.

Finally, risks increase with the NFP monthly release. When risk increases, the position sizes should be reduced.  It is also wise to let the initial reaction come and go.  Many a trader have been whipped around on the initial reaction.   Generally speaking a number which is bullish for stocks, will tend to lead to a lower dollar as investors look for the riskier assets.  If the stock market declines, the dollar gets stronger on a flight to quality bid.  This does not mean it will be case this month – much is dependent on flows in the market.