US Retail Sales, PPI and Empire Manufacturing Index due out at 8:30 AM
The US will release the Retail Sales for August along with the PPI for the same month. The Retail Sales data will be boosted by Auto sales as a result of the Cash for Clunkers program. The estimate is for a gain of 1.9% for the month with the Ex Auto component estimated to come out at +0.4% (vs -0.6% last month).
The PPI is expected to rebound with a 0.8% gain after falling by -0.9% last month. They Ex Food and Energy is expected to rise by 0.1% for the month versus a fall of 0.1% in July. For the Year on Year figures, the inflation rate is expected to fall by -5.3% vs -6.8% last month. Part of the gain is as a result of the expected large increase this month. The other part is as a result of the falling out of a -0.5% change that occurred last August. Over the coming months, -7.2% of cumulative monthly declines in PPI will drop out of the YoY data (see declines in Sept, Oct, Nov and Dec 2008 in the chart above). As a result, the PPI will show a quick move higher toward +2.0% YoY.
The Empire Manufacturing Index is expected to rise to 15.0 from 12.08 last month. The positive reading last month was the first increase since April 2008.
Component Values from last month showed New Orders rose to the highest level since November 2007.
Prices Paid 13.83
Prices Received -12.77
New Orders 13.43
Shipments 14.11
Delivery Time -10.64
Inventories -22.34
Unfilled Orders -9.57
Number of Employees -7.45
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