Swiss Government announced the 3rd Economic Stimulus Injection

Written June 17, 2009 at 7:38 AM EST by  

Email This Post Email This Post   Print This Post Print This Post

Below are the new forecasts for key economic data in Switzerland

  • CONSUMER DEMAND RISE 0.2 IN 2009; DROP 0.2% IN 2010
  • 2009 UNEMPLOYMENT AT 3.8%; 2010 AT 5.5%
  • CPI DROP 0.5% IN 2009; GAIN 0.9% IN 2010
  • GOVT PLANS SF400 MLN  THIRD ECONOMIC STIMULUS PLAN
  • 2009 EXPORTS DOWN 11.2%, 2010 UP 1.4%
  • PREVIOUSLY FORECAST 2009 GDP DOWN 2.2%, 2010 UP 0.1%
  • 2009 GDP DOWN 2.7%; 2010 DOWN 0.4%

The news initially led to a selloff in the USDCHF (stronger Swiss Franc).  It has since fallen off.   The EURCHF, which the central bank is most concerned about, has likewise been mixed since the announcement but is up on the day. The EURCHF, since the intervention by the SNB on March 12th has retraced 50%  and moved largely sideways.  The pair tested the 100 day moving average over the last 3 days and held the level (currently at the 1.5067 level). The 200 day moving average is converging toward the level.  It currently stands at the 1.5177.   

gregmike-03707

On the hourly chart, the price moved above the 100 hour moving average today at the 1.5090 level (see chart below).   The bias is positive for the pair.  I expect further gains higher with buyers against the 100 hour MA and the 1.5082 level.   Confirmation to the upside will come on a break of the 200 hour MA currently at the 1.5125 level.

gregmike-03708

The SNB has an interest rate meeting tomorrow and no change in rates is expected.  However, given the weakness in exports, they may comment on the value of the CHF.

No Responses to “Swiss Government announced the 3rd Economic Stimulus Injection”

Add a comment