USDCAD tests 100 hour moving average and Fibo retracement support
The USDCAD had opposing forces at work today. The bearish force was the increase in commodities which typically benefits the CAD$ (USDCAD down). The bullish force was the Bank of Canada comment that the sharp rise in the CAD$ (i.e lower USDCAD), could offset positive factors. That is the gains made in the economy could be at risk if the export side of the economy was hurt by a stronger CAD$ that makes exports less competitive abroad.
As the day developed and the CRB index (and oil, etc) resumed its move higher, the USDCAD price wandered back below the 200 hour moving average at the 1.1057 level. From there the inertia took the pair down to the 100 hour moving average at the 1.0926 level (low was 1.0927). Note also that the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracment of the last move higher also came in at the level. As a result, profit taking entered the market and has pushed the price back to the 1.0970 area.
So like the EURUSD - like the GBPUSD - the USDCAD has found some comfort between support (against the 100 hour MA at 1.0927) and resistance (against the 200 hour moving average at 1.1053). These levels will become the key levels for traders going forward tonight.
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