US Unemployment and Non Farm Payroll Review

Written March 5, 2009 at 5:19 PM EST by  

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The all important, US Unemployment statistics will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM.  The expectation is for a decline of 650K jobs and for the unemployment rate to rise to 7.9%.   The data has the potential to be worse than expectations.  To find out why and to have a better understanding of this important economic release, read the following analysis. 

For a complete analysis of the report, click on the following link.

  US Unemployment and Non Farm Payroll Special Report (626.6 KiB, 1,939 hits)
You need to be a registered user to download this file.

 Thank you for your continued business and good luck with your trading.

Greg Michalowski
Chief Currency Analyst

4 Responses to “US Unemployment and Non Farm Payroll Review”

  1. Sunarto SPD on March 5th, 2009 6:42 pm

    Why the file US Unemployment and Non Farm Payroll Special Report can’t
    opened on my computer?

  2. Greg Michalowski on March 6th, 2009 7:52 am

    You need to have Adobe Acrobat Reader to open up a PDF file. You can get a free copy and download to your computer at http://get.adobe.com/reader/

  3. adesua samson gbenga on March 17th, 2009 5:07 am

    how is this US Unemployment is it going to affect the market movement ?

  4. Greg Michalowski on March 17th, 2009 10:05 am

    On the day of the US employment report, the market tends to trade in a volatile fashion. The first half hour after the report generally has wild swings as supply demand flows dominate. Traders tend to prefer to wait until the market settles to make fundamental, more sound judgements on the market direction.

    Generally speaking, a weak report should lead to a lower dollar as economic activity slows. This should lead to loose monetary policy and less demand for dollars. However lately, weak economic data out of the US tends to lead to a higher dollar as the US is still considered a safe haven in a world that is all suffering from recessionary pressures. A weak US = a weak global economy as well.

    This is why I personally prefer to make judgments on market direction by looking at the technical charts – especially in the current environment. By doing this, the technical charts tend to tell the fundamental story of the data as well as the flow data from the global forex market which can have a marked influence on the market direction.

    Fundamental analysis is important. Knowing the economic backdrop is important in making a better, more informed trader. That is why we try and spend a lot of time on it in the commentary pages. However, it is not wise to ignore the technical charts as they tend sometimes tell a different story which can save or make you money in the long run.

    I hope this brief comment was helpful.

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