EURUSD moves above the resistance and continues march higher
Written November 11, 2011 at 9:41 AM EST by Greg Michalowski
The EURUSD has pushed above the 1.3680-83 resistance area. The low on Monday’s trade came in at the 1.36805 level. The 100 hour MA comes in at 1.3683. This is now support. Other support comes in at the midpoint of the weeks range that comes in at 1.36704 (high from earlier today hit 1.3667).
On the topside, the next target is the 1.37146 level where the 61.8% of the weeks range and the 200 hour MA (at 1.3717) is found.
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what is the support from here for eurusd greg?
My app shows 38 % comes in 1.3690 in 5 min chart.
Bottom is 1.3601 and top is 1.3737
1.3714 is 200 hour and 61.8 of the weeks range. This is now support for the pair.
some sellers seem to be appearing in this 3730 – 3745 in my hourly chart. This should bring down the price below 1.3700 in my opinion but after europe closes probably.
Makret breaking faster than I can type. The 1.3792 is the next target I see (old underside of trendline. A flatter line comes in at 1.3757 now. SO 1.3757-92 is range barriers
Same old hopes on austerity measures by Italy and Greece., which pushes the market.
We have seen enuff of this in the past.
I will not be bullish but rather look for selling opportunities only If at all, i will just scalp and take 10 pips in long positions.
Yep. Frustrating. It is clear that the ECB/EU/IMF are taking another tact. It is hope. There are a number of unknowns.
Seems no logic behind this drop. It opened up higher then dropping 150 pips.
The fundamentalists are blaming Italy and a reluctance to purchase/hold Italian debt for fear of another debt debacle. That is again the chatter I am hearing this morning. 5 year note yields are up fro 6.48% on Friday to 6.6% currently. That is not all that great a change given the recent volatility.
1.3608 was old low, where it bounced.
Frustrating US open, similar to many days.
No one could move the price. Europeons could move it down inspite of bullish bias in asian open.
The NY (7 am) high and low 55 pips with a high of 1.3669 and a low of 1.3614. An extension could stiall be expected. 1.3607 is the next target to breach on the downside.
Had 3607 as target. Just missed.
QUick buyers at 1.3609 on first test.
Understand. Anyways, booked profit at 1.3617.
Greg,
Between last friday and today what has made the market to look very weak?
Another roumour from europe? or just technical correction again?
As you know the technicals do tend to confrim the move, but in a addiition one of the important stories was a huge loss from Italian Unicredit. They announced a loss of over 10 billion, and will need to raise 7.5 billion euros to replenish capital to 9% capital ratio. They are largely exposed to Italy debt. On any given day the EURUSD can fall (and I can argue as well ..on any given day the EURUSD can rise). The market is also getting spooked by the debt burden of countries like Italy and Spain. Italy had a 5 year bond auction where they issued less than needed in order to insure a success. Even so, the added interest expense as a result of higher yields in Italy is not good for the “new” government. Finally, that new “technocratic” government, may sound like a neat idea, but cutting costs, changing things like retirement ages and laying off hundreds of thousands of public sector workers will take its toll on the economy no matter who is in charge. The plan is there. It is the implementation that is in question. Will the toll on the economy be weathered before a contagion sends bond yields even higher? The ESFS does not have enough levered funds to bailout a debt burden of Italy which is about 1.4 trillion, a multiple of the 250 billion of Greece.
So, probably the main thing to ignite the fall is huge loss in italian unicredit. Other reasons are floating around on daily basis.
Shri glad to hear you are doing so well. What app on Nov 11 did you refer to?
Had to step away last few day.
Opened trade Mon. morning and decided if the market moved above the 200MA on the 5 min I would get out. up 225 pips plus and still holding. Need exit strategy now. Any suggestions would be appreciated?
38.2 % of t he weeks range comes in at 1.3573. Traders will look for this level to hold. Put the hourly chart up. and go back to Nove 10 and 11th. That is where there was a base. So I think traders would not want to see that.
Closer resistance is at is 1.3493-05 area where the 38.2%/50% and 200 bar MA on the 5 mnute chart are currently located. A target on the downside is 1.3411 which is bottom channel support off the lows on the daily chart (connect Nov 1 and Nov 10 lows). A break of the 1.3400, targets 1.3361.
Those are my technical levels Josh
Stocks are weak again today. eurusd Could retest the bottom once again.
Greg,
I read somewhere eurusd is just following italian bond yields and not stocks
( s & p ). Any live chart available anywhere to see bond yields?
I dont know of any, other than the more expensive systems like Bloomberg. I have access to Bloomberg and have been posting yields from time to time
Much needed corective rally started. 3586 is 38 % level. This is minimum I expect the price will reach.
Is yesterday the good old days? Tues low and 100MA on 5 min could this be a remembered line? 1.3495?
tip: in chart properties under common tab one can select “show object descriptions” and insert personal descriptions. Such as yesterday hi, lo, rem lines, trend connection, etc. I have found this very helpful. It also helps me when cleaning up charts of objects. If I cant identify it with description then maybe I dont need it.
Good idea Josh. Whatever makes things clearer for you the better….
The movement is frustrating. A big sell off at the end of session !!
3535 is top side resistance. Markets are weak, downside rotation back ?
Had option barriers for today at 1.3400 / 20 I read somewhere. That is why this did not break?
Anyone would expect that given the scenario in eurzone, we should have seen 1.3145 by this time. Surprisng really.
In the current bullish move up to 3535, from 1.3485, made 900 bucks. Now will look for shots only as resistance has reached.
Option barrier excuses is one of those things I never really understood to be honest with you Shri but if is why support was found…OK i guess. ; ) Frustrating at times…
I read that the option expires today. Let us see if it breaks today atleast.
Yestrday when market was closing ” Big ” action in eurusd. sharp fall. That continued in asian also b4 it found support at 3420. When the market closes something happens these days unlike those days. Should be watchful. Yestrday I had longs when there was sharp fall, i had to take losses.
Now I am only short and will take losses if it breaches 3560 area.
Gone through 3480 now. next barrier is 3430/20. Then 3380 only.
Anybody notice how much respect that there has been for yesterdays hi lo in the last few days? Looks to me as if when there is no trend, the range will settle into a range.
1.3550 to 1.3425 not much there for a trend, but good for lunch money. Anybody else notice this?
once again I got stopped out in short trade.
1.3565, STOPPED OUT
True josh. For some time it has been in range between 3425 and 3550.
Most od retail traders thought it will break 3425 level. I too thought that way.
But it prefered to break upside today above 3550 !!
I had stop loss limits in all my short trades so stopped out on two occasions both in short side.