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USDJPY a disappointment

In a week that saw the BOJ “ease” by raising the liquidity available in the banking sector, the upside move for the USDJPY has been a disappointment.  The pair reached a high in the first hour of trading for the week at 90.83.  On Thursday the high reached 90.77. Today, the high could only reach 90.70.  The low extended to 89.75 but that was for a single hour. 

The good news is the price was able to close above the 100 day MA on each of the days but not without a few instances where the price dipped below intraday.  Currently the price is at the converged 100 and 200 hour MA which come in at the 90.37 level.  The market price has settled at that level which is congruent with the overall activity this week. 

So will we get the awaited move to the upside for the pair with the target focused…

NY Friday begins. EURUSD watch 1.3513 again

The 1.3513 was talked about in an earlier report  as a level the EURUSD started the bullish move to the upside on March 2nd (see chart below). That level was breached as the London traders prepared to go home. The price has since moved back higher and has started to use the level as support once again. For intraday traders I would expect they may look to use the level as a pivot as the Friday comes to a close.

On the topside, look for a move above 1.3531 to perhaps solicit some additional short covering. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.3550 where the 38.2% of the days range is also found. The moving average and retracement would be targets.

Forex Midday Report - March 19

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The end of the London week is heating up

The GBPUSD has been smashed. The EURUSD has been hit. USDCHF has move back up to test the 200 hour MA. 

AUDUSD has moved sharply lower and even USDCAD which started the day so bearish is back up testing key resistance. 

Plus there is whole hour of  trading left until the 5:00 end time. 

This week, the 11-12 hour has seen some volatile price moves . Be aware. There are a lot of pips going on and it seems people are still caught off sides.

USDCAD squeezed to 100 hour MA resistance

The 1.0143-45 level is the 100 hour MA . It is also the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.  If the market is to attract sellers this is the level. If it squeezes further the shorts could get hurt.

EURUSD falls below the 1.3530 low

The EURUSD has moved below the 1.3530 low price from March 5th and moved to a new low at 1.3519. The pair has longs caught and they scramble to cover as the weekend approaches. The topside should now use the 1.3539 level as stops to the upside.  The 1.3512 area is support. The market based at this level in early March when the price was last at this area .  A move below targets 1.3482.

USDCAD tests 38.2% retracement

The USDCAD is back up testing resistance against the 38.2% retracement of the days range at the 1.0109 level.  Watching the level to provide some resistance.  The higher dollar has led to the short covering rally of f the trendline lows.  Additonal resistance comes in  at 1.0118 and 1.0124.

GBPUSD moving tests 200 hour MA

The GBPUSD has moved below the 200 hour MA at the 1.5116 level and looks toward the next support level at the 1.5065 level.   This is the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the March 10th low to the high at 1.5380 pm March 17th. The pound has been hit hard today on the back of the comments from BOE Sentance on how he is concerned about a double dip recession.

Forex Morning Report - March 19

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EURUSD pressing the downside

The EURUSD is pressing the 2 week low prices at the 1.3528. 1.3538 and 1.3551 levels as NY continues to pressure the currency. The Greece situation/lack of action has the market back eyeing the downside for the pair. 

The rates that Greece is to pay for its upcoming debt obligation (10 billion euro on April 20 and May 19th) had widened to 330 pips above German debt at current market rates.  The country needs to have this premium subsidized and/or have the market spread contract. So far, any austerity announcements have not impressed the market nor narrowed the spread. The EU is not fully committed to making any concrete support although some have suggested (i.e Trichet) that they might need to in order to keep confidence in the EU.  If not, that leaves the IMF as a source of last resort.  Time will tell, but until then, the focus is on the…

Canada Retail Sales better than expectations. USDCAD looks toward parity.

Headline up 0.7% and Less Autos +1.8% (vs 0.5%). 

The  USDCAD  has moved to new lows at 1.0061 (trendline support). It is hard to see the USDCAD not testing parity soon.  The upside should be contained by1.0097 now.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.19.2010

Good Morning:

The Euro lost ground again as concern that Greece will not be able to secure a bailout package from the EU lowered demand for the single currency.  The Euro will continue to be under pressure while the EU decides if they will be the provider of an aid package to Greece, or will the IMF be the preferred option for a bailout.

World equity markets rose, and US futures are slightly higher this morning.
Metals also rose, and oil fell.

Oil:$81.77                                                        Gold:$1122.30

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK