REBROADCAST: Forex Traders Course Lesson 12 w/ Greg Michalowski

Forex Traders Course Lesson 12 Part 2 with Greg Michalowski, Thursday 4:00PM (New York time) - Join us for Part 2 of using the Moving Averages to anticipate trends.   CLICK TO VIEW

EURUSD makes new highs…

The Friday afternoon squeeze is on as hopes for Greek solution and weaker GDP lead to the dollars decline.   In Greece the comment from a spokesperson is there is one step left for an agreement.  At the same time the word is a 2nd bailout may be coming from the EU but further funding from the EU is coming to an end.  Maybe the haircut will get them over the hump and they can fund addtional payments through positive cash flow and austerity measures, but if they can not, I do not think tapping the debt market will be an option.  The situation is still vague but the market is getting used to it and it may just be a big stall to allow banks more time to shore up balance sheets via the ECB version of QE.

Meanwhile, in the US, the market is realizing that the GDP was not all that great and with a dovish Bernanke/Fed  behind the wheel promoting a lower dollar and the potential for more QE, maybe that is the way to go.  The only thing missing today is a roaring stock market in the US.

Greek debt deal in principle by Sunday evening.

• Greek official adds, that the EU will not fill any funding shortfall after 2nd bailout, but there are other ways.

More vague comments and solutions.

EURUSD breaks trendline . Weeks high the next target

The EURUSD broke out of the triangle formation and stops triggered. The range for the day was extended on the move. The high for the week came in at 1.3183. This is the next target.

UK Miles says presumptuos to think QE in Feb is a done deal

• QE will hinge on forecasts
• He adds that there is substantial spare capacity in the UK economy.  This will persist into the future
• CPI is on a pretty steep downward path
• Confident it wil fall as forecast
• Would be no great surprise if the UK suffers technical recesssion

I don’t know why given the above statements it would not be extended but I guess he can have his opinion.

As fast as the GBPUSD went down, the pair has retraced 50% . The 200 bar MA  and midpoint of the days range is the next target.

GBPUSD tumbles. Talk of a UK clearer selling

The GBPUSD took a tumble lower. Market chatter is a UK clearer was selling (this is not confirmed). The price fell below the trendline support outlined in the morning commentary. The price is now below the 38.2% of the weeks trading range at the 1.56498 level.

The next key target comes in at the 1.56241 level.  The level corresponds with the 50% retracement and the 100 hour MA.

REBROADCAST: Forex Traders Course Lesson 12 w/ Greg Michalowski

Forex Traders Course Lesson 12 Part 2 with Greg Michalowski, Thursday 4:00PM (New York time) - Join us for Part 2 of using the Moving Averages to anticipate trends.   CLICK TO VIEW

University of Michigan Confidence Rises to 75.0 from Prior and Survey of 74.0

75.0 highlest level since February 2011

Jan 12 vs. Dec 11
Consumer Confidence: 74.0 vs 69.9
Economic Conditions: 82.6 vs 79.6
Economic Outlook: 68.4 vs 63.6

Volatility takes hold. Dollar up and down in NY trading

AUDUSD reverses and now down on the day

The AUDUSD reversed course with a reversal of the stock market in pre opening trading. The price fell below the close from yesterday at the 1.0630 level but has found support against the 38.2% of the weeks trading range.  Traders will likely use these two areas as the extremes for trading this morning. The burden is still on the sellers to push the price lower.

ON the topside, traders will also be watching the 1.06227 level which is the 38.2% of the move down.  Holding this level on the correction higher might be a sign that traders are willing to sell and lighten up positions into the weekend. A move above could be a sign, the flush lower was just a quick. low liquidity move.

USDCAD shoots higher

The Dec job gain was revised up to 21,700 from 17,500 but the USDCAD has moved sharply higher over  the last 20 or so minutes of trading. The surge higher has nearly fully reversed the decline today  and seems to have surprised a short market.  The high for the day at 1.0039 is the next target to get through. On the downside look for the 38.2% of the move higher to hold support at the 1.0018 level.  IF the move higher did catch shorts, and is supported by good buying, this level should find willing buyers.  Aggresive buyers would look to hold support closer at the 1.0024 area.  Is it real or is it just a Friday move on low volume?

EURSD consolidating. Low at 1.3076 targeted

The EURUSD has moved below the close from yesterday at the 1.3108. The price is also now below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.3120 level currently.  The low for the day at the 1.3076 level is the next target for the pair.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-January.27.2012

Good Morning:

With a looming 14 billion euro payment due in March-the Greek government is in continuous talks with their private creditors to restructure their debt.  This has been the centerpiece of the currency markets for the past week.  Creditors are insisting on ECB participation in the Greek debt mess.
In other news from the Euro Zone:
Portuguese bond yields reached new highs-as market participants are in  the mindset that Portugal may need a second bailout to work out their debt mess.
Spain’s unemployment rate rose to over 22%-as the loss of construction jobs continues to hamper any employment recovery.

US  Q4 GDP rises 2.8%.     

Asian equity markets were higher-Europe is lower-as are US Futures.

Oil is higher-still below $100/bar.  Gold is lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

I will be out of the office next week-as I am having knee surgery.  I will hobble back on Feb 6.

GDP not up to snuff

Headline 2.8%
Consumption 2% vs 2.4% expected (Contributed 1.45%
Investment rose 20% (Contributed 2.35%)
Government  -4.6% (Subtracted -0.93%)

Exports rose 4.7% (Net Exports subtracted -0.11%)
Imports rose by 4.4%

Inventories (which are part of Investment) added 56B. This contributed 1.94% of the 2.35% gain in investments.

Real Final Sales rose by 0.4% vs +2.6% last quarter. 
Unannualized, GDP rose by 0.7% QoQ vs 0.5%. This was the highest reading since 2Q of 2010

US GDP Weaker Than Expectations

(Annualized):   Survey: 3.0%   Actual: 2.8%   Prior: 1.8%  

Personal Consumption:   Survey: 2.4%   Actual: 2.0%   Prior: 1.7%  

GDP Price Index:   Survey: 1.9%   Actual: .4%   Prior: 2.6%  

Core PCE QoQ:   Survey: 0.9%   Actual: 1.1%   Prior: 2.1%